COMP Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Social media optimism, high call volume, and AI forecast suggest potential upside.




Bearish Case: Backwardation in term structure and recent flat performance indicate risk of stagnation.




Potential Outcomes: 30% chance of growth with AI integration, 50% market stagnation, 20% regulatory setbacks.




Trading Oracle: Implement a long volatility strategy with debit spreads targeting May 2025 options. Exploit backwardation and capitalize on potential volatility spikes. Favor a $7 buy and $8 sell call for a balanced reward-risk scenario.



January 16, 2025


Compass Forecast

COMP        Compass











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with COMP



MC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MC  Moelis (0.92)


TGTX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TGTX  TG Therapeutics (0.91)


GWRE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GWRE  Guidewire Software (0.91)


EVRG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EVRG  Evergy (0.91)


VIRT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIRT  Virtu Financial (0.9)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to COMP



DNN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DNN  Denison Mines (-0.0)


RIOT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RIOT  Riot Blockchain (0.0)


DELL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DELL  Dell (0.01)


URBN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   URBN  Urban Outfitters (-0.01)


ASAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ASAN  Asana (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against COMP



IEP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IEP  Icahn (-0.83)


LEA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEA  Lear (-0.83)


EL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EL  Estee Lauder Cos. (-0.86)


OXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OXY  Occidental Petroleum (-0.87)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.89)









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