CRI Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: CRI's low implied volatility and potential mean reversion suggest upside. Positive sentiment around brand identity and potential growth in the children's apparel market enhance the bullish narrative.




Bearish Case: Persistent macroeconomic concerns and high short-term implied volatility suggest downside risk. Recent underperformance and increased put volume emphasize vulnerability to further declines.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Mean reversion to higher prices: 60% chance.
  • Macroeconomic pressures continue: 40% chance.
  • Regulatory issues resurface: 30% chance.




Trading Oracle: Given CRI's high implied volatility and pessimistic outlook, a Bearish Long Volatility strategy seems profitable. Buy OOTM puts and sell fewer further OOTM puts to capitalize on potential downside while mitigating risk.



March 08, 2025


Carters Forecast

CRI        Carters











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CRI



CNI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNI  Canadian National Railway (0.91)


WU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WU  Western Union (0.89)


BGS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BGS  B&G Foods (0.89)


XRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XRX  Xerox (0.88)


XP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XP  XP (0.88)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CRI



CPS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CPS  Cooper-Standard (-0.0)


FRSH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FRSH  Freshworks (-0.01)


OTIS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OTIS  Otis Worldwide (-0.01)


SMIN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SMIN  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares MSCI India Small-Cap (0.02)


MBUU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MBUU  Malibu Boats (-0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CRI



JPM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JPM  JPMorgan Chase (-0.86)


CRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRS  Carpenter Technology (-0.87)


OPFI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OPFI  OppFi (-0.87)


GLW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GLW  Corning (-0.88)


ATGE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ATGE  Adtalem Global Education (-0.9)









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