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CURV Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: CURV's recent +40% in 60 days and mean-reverting tendencies suggest a potential continued short-term rally if social sentiment remains optimistic.



Bearish Case: High implied volatility and historical likelihood of negative returns imply bearish sentiment, especially with competition and economic uncertainties.



Potential Outcomes:

1) Continued mean reversion (+30% in 3 months, 25% chance).

2) Decline due to weak fundamentals (-50%, 60% chance) as past predictions showed.

3) Stabilization awaiting catalysts (15% chance).



Trading Oracle: Given CURV's high implied volatility and mean-reverting nature, a bearish short-term credit spread is favorable. Sell May 16 7.50 P and buy Aug 15 7.50 P. Capitalize on high IV, targeting downside with controlled risk for high reward-to-risk ratio.


January 11, 2025


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CURV        Torrid

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CURV


OGN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OGN  Organon (0.59)


CNXC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNXC  Concentrix (0.5)


ESTC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ESTC  Elastic (0.49)


AZN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AZN  Astrazeneca (0.49)


VAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VAL  Valaris (0.49)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CURV


HTZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HTZ  Hertz Global Holdings (-0.0)


ARKG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARKG  ARK Investment Management LLC - ARK Genomic Revolution (-0.0)


HIMS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HIMS  Hims & Hers Health (0.0)


FNA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FNA  Paragon 28 (-0.0)


DELL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DELL  Dell (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CURV


MAS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MAS  Masco (-0.63)


ILMN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ILMN  Illumina (-0.66)


TRV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TRV  Travelers Companies (-0.68)


BHVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BHVN  Biohaven Pharmaceutical (-0.74)


MCD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MCD  McDonald's (-0.75)







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