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EC Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: EC's strategic initiatives in sustainability and diversification, coupled with potential regulatory resolutions, could drive long-term growth, supported by a slight upward mean reversion tendency in historical data.



Bearish Case: High volatility, geopolitical risks, and negative sentiment dominate, with historical returns showing a high likelihood of negative outcomes over short holding periods, indicating potential continued declines.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Geopolitical tensions worsen (40%) - 15% decrease.

2. Regulatory approvals (20%) - 10% increase.

3. Oil price surge (15%) - 12% increase.



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May 15, 2025


Ecopetrol SA Forecast

EC        Ecopetrol SA

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with EC


SHEL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHEL  Shell Plc - ADR (Representing) (0.85)


PAGS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PAGS  PagSeguro Digital (0.85)


EWW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EWW  iShares MSCI Mexico (0.82)


SBLK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SBLK  Star Bulk Carriers (0.82)


XP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XP  XP (0.81)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to EC


DKS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DKS  Dicks Sporting Goods (-0.0)


AA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AA  Alcoa (-0.01)


INTU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INTU  Intuit (-0.01)


UBER Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UBER  Uber (-0.01)


QYLD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   QYLD  Global X NASDAQ 100 Covered Call (0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against EC


SOFI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SOFI  SoFi (-0.85)


RKLB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RKLB  Rocket Lab USA (-0.85)


AXON Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AXON  Axon Enterprise (-0.86)


PTON Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTON  Peloton Interactive (-0.86)


CALM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CALM  Cal-Maine Foods (-0.89)







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