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EC Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Positive oil price trends and potential regulatory easing support upward movement, boosted by historical mean reversion patterns.



Bearish Case: High volatility combined with geopolitical tensions and regulatory uncertainty could drive prices lower, indicated by high put option volume.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Oil price increase: 25% (+12%);

2. Market downturn: 40% (-10%);

3. Regulatory clarity: 20% (+8%).



Trading Oracle: Favor bearish credit spreads given high IV and put volume; sell EC 10/15/2025 $12.5 puts, buy $10 puts. Exploit high IV, 180-day outlook.


February 23, 2025


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