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EPP Forecast

Bullish Case: The EPP options volatility surface indicates a high premium and potential upward momentum, supported by recent historical patterns showing recovery trends, particularly driven by positive macroeconomic news from the Asia-Pacific region.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility in EPP reflects market uncertainty, combined with historical average returns showing volatility and potential declines, likely influenced by economic instability or geopolitical risks in the region.

Potential Outcomes: Market recovery due to positive regional economic indicators (40%)
Stagnation around current levels with slight fluctuations (30%)
Economic downturn leading to pricing below $40 (30%)

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread; buy EPP calls at $44 and sell at $48 to capitalize on the high implied volatility supporting price jumps. Given current market trends, focus on a 1-3 month horizon to align with potential regional recovery. This strategy is advantageous given favorable risk/reward ratios and high probability-of-profit.

December 20, 2024

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with EPP

DFEN Direxion Daily Aerospace & Defense Bull 3X Shares (0.92)

VTV Vanguard Value (0.9)

IWD iShares Russell 1000 Value (0.9)

MFC Manulife Financial (0.89)

DGRO iShares Core Dividend Growth (0.89)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to EPP

VTRS Viatris (0.0)

OGN Organon (0.02)

IOVA Iovance Biotherapeutics (-0.02)

LCID Lucid (-0.03)

FANG Diamondback Energy (-0.03)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against EPP

VSAT Viasat (-0.73)

AMR Alta Mesa Resources (-0.75)

WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.77)

APLS Apellis Pharmaceuticals (-0.79)

SPXS Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.85)

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