ESTC Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Elastic's strong cloud revenue and AI integration position it well for continued growth, with robust implied volatility supporting upside potential.




Bearish Case: Intensifying competition and insider sales, coupled with elevated implied volatility, may lead to investor caution and potential downward pressure on ESTC.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Cloud revenue boosts growth: 60% chance
  • Competitive challenges slow growth: 30% chance
  • External market shock causes volatility: 10% chance




Trading Oracle:

Utilize the Bullish Short Volatility strategy. This involves selling ATM put options and buying more OOTM put options, capitalizing on the current high implied volatility and potential for price recovery.



April 18, 2025


Elastic Forecast

ESTC        Elastic











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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ESTC



BCE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BCE  BCE (-0.0)


TJX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TJX  TJX Companies (-0.0)


GLNG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GLNG  Golar Lng (-0.0)


RELY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RELY  Remitly (0.01)


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Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ESTC



CCK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CCK  Crown Holdings (-0.53)


SCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCO  ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (-0.53)


UL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UL  Unilever (-0.53)


VIXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIXY  ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.68)


VXX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VXX  iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.68)









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