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GEVO Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Gevo's focus on sustainable aviation fuel aligns with regulatory incentives for carbon reduction. Strong partnerships could lead to increased market share and future profitability.



Bearish Case: Financial instability and execution challenges persist, with high volatility and cash burn jeopardizing long-term sustainability and operational success.



Potential Outcomes: 60% chance of SAF project success boosting revenues, 30% chance financial struggles hinder growth, 10% chance of strategic buyouts due to technological value.



Trading Oracle: Deploy a bullish long call debit spread: buy 3 $2.0 strike call options, sell 2 $3.0 strike options expiring in 95 days. Leverage elevated implied volatility for potential upside while minimizing risk. Evaluate position ahead of key regulatory announcements.


February 12, 2025











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MSCI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MSCI  MSCI (0.83)


TSAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TSAT  Telesat Corp (0.82)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to GEVO


LEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEN  Lennar (0.01)


IGLB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IGLB  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares 10 Year Investment Grade Corporate Bond (0.01)


IAC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IAC  IAC InterActiveCorp. (-0.01)


TSN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TSN  Tyson Foods (0.01)


WRAP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WRAP  Wrap (0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against GEVO


RIG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RIG  Transocean (-0.74)


BIIB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BIIB  Biogen (-0.74)


NOV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NOV  NOV (-0.79)


WFRD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WFRD  Weatherford International plc - New (-0.81)


VAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VAL  Valaris (-0.81)







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