Bullish Case: The historical price return surface indicates that longer holding periods (1-3 years) have a high probability of positive returns, suggesting potential recovery or growth for HGBL as market interest in cultural heritage increases.

Bearish Case: Continued economic pressures and historic flat price action depict a cautious outlook. If consumer interest in heritage assets wanes, the stock could underperform, reflecting investor skepticism.

Potential Outcomes:

• Strong auction results boost HGBL (40% chance).
• Market stagnation persists (30% chance).
• Economic downturn pressures HGBL (25% chance).
• Regulatory issues lead to declines (5% chance).

Trading Oracle: Consider initiating long volatility debit spreads on HGBL due to its historical mean-reverting nature. With a 6-month horizon, target strikes near current price levels to capitalize on potential positive market shifts and hedge against downside risk. Historical data suggests a 65% chance of profit based on auction successes.

December 20, 2024