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IBM Forecast

Price Forecast:

Bearish <-> Bullish

Bullish Case: IBM's strategic investments in AI and cloud technologies, alongside its consistent historical performance, suggest a significant upside potential. Positive earnings could reinforce this trend.

Bearish Case: Ongoing insider selling raises concerns about investor confidence and potential stock overvaluation. The enduring negative trading trend enhances downside risks, supported by market uncertainties.

Potential Outcomes: Market positivity from potential AI breakthroughs (40% chance).
Continued insider selling affecting stock prices negatively (45% chance).
Stable stock performance amid mixed signals and market indecision (15% chance).

Trading Oracle: Considering the current market sentiment and implied volatility, initiate a bullish debit spread: Buy the 230 Call and sell the 235 Call with an expiration in the next few weeks. This targets short-term upward movement while managing risk effectively. With a favorable risk/reward ratio, aim for a 60% probability of profit, capitalizing on implied volatility spikes.

November 24, 2024

International Business Machines Forecast

IBM International Business Machines

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with IBM

SHW Sherwin-Williams (0.9)

CYBR CyberArk Software (0.88)

ITB BTC iShares U.S. Home Construction (0.87)

ICE Intercontinental Exchange (0.87)

TRV Travelers Companies (0.87)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to IBM

SOXS Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X Shares (-0.0)

IJH BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap (-0.0)

VLO Valero Energy (0.01)

GEF Greif (0.01)

GIII G-III Apparel (-0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against IBM

WEAT Teucrium Wheat (-0.72)

CAR Avis Budget (-0.75)

RILY B. Riley Financial (-0.76)

SPXS Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.77)

BIIB Biogen (-0.79)

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