Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: IIPR's strong operational performance and support from cannabis industry trends suggest growth, with relatively high call volume indicating positive sentiment. Implied volatility trends support potential upward price movement.

Bearish Case: Regulatory uncertainty and potential tenant defaults present risks to IIPR's growth profile. With market volatility increasing, bearish sentiment appears plausible if economic pressures rise further.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued growth (60%): strong demand and operational success.

2. Regulatory setbacks (25%): policy changes impacting growth.

3. Market downturn (10%): broader economic impacts.

4. Increased dividends (5%): boosting investor confidence.

Trading Oracle: Given the current market conditions, initiate a short put spread: sell the $130 put and buy the $125 put. This strategy aligns with bullish sentiment and optimizes for Helium's 67% profit odds while capturing premium in a flatter volatility environment. Consider positions with 30-day expirations to leverage potential near-term gains.

October 22, 2024