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IIPR Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: IIPR's unique positioning in the cannabis REIT market, coupled with potential regulatory shifts, could enhance tenant stability and growth. High dividends may attract income-focused investors.



Bearish Case: Tenant defaults and reliance on security deposits present significant risks to IIPR’s financial stability. Regulatory uncertainty could exacerbate these issues, impacting investor sentiment negatively.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 60% chance operational challenges persist due to tenant defaults.
  • 25% chance regulatory reforms stabilize revenues.
  • 10% chance market downturn exacerbates losses.
  • 5% chance dividend adjustments stabilize outlook.



Trading Oracle: Adopt a bearish strategy using long volatility debit spreads. Buy $65 puts, sell $60 puts, expiring in ~21 days. Capitalize on high implied volatility for potential 324% return.


January 24, 2025


Innovative Industrial Properties Forecast

IIPR        Innovative Industrial Properties

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Anticorrelated Assets

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