IOBT Forecast


Bullish Case: Catalysts include positive interim Phase 3 results for IO102-IO103, projected regulatory submission, and new leadership expertise potentially enhancing commercialization efforts.


Bearish Case: Key risks include high cash burn, significant dilution from potential capital raises, and competitive pressures in the immuno-oncology market impacting valuation.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Positive interim Phase 3 results (40%).

2. Regulatory submission success (30%).

3. Larger-than-expected cash burn requiring dilution (20%).

4. Inconclusive Phase 3 results, ongoing volatility (10%).


Trading Oracle: Trade bullish debit spreads leveraging helium volatility, targeting short-term gains around Q3 2024 interim results. This strategy capitalizes on mean reversion and potential positive trial data, balancing high reward:risk.


June 28, 2024


IO Biotech Forecast

IOBT      IO Biotech











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Uncorrelated Assets

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XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.09)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.09)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.25)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.36)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against IOBT



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.36)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.25)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.09)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.09)





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