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KMX Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: KMX's ongoing digital transformation and potential demand recovery, complemented by volatile periods that provide trading opportunities, suggest room for positive price adjustments, especially as macroeconomic conditions improve.

Bearish Case: KMX faces challenges with persisting high interest rates and economic uncertainties, compounded by a recent showroom incident potentially affecting brand perception and near-term sales.

Potential Outcomes: Probability of easing inflation boosting sales: 35%. Further interest rate hikes inhibiting sales: 40%. Online sales mitigating losses: 15%. Unforeseen macroeconomic shocks reducing demand: 10%.

March 20, 2025

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with KMX

TFC Truist Financial (0.8)

GCO Genesco (0.72)

JPM JPMorgan Chase (0.69)

AXP American Express (0.68)

GLNG Golar Lng (0.67)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to KMX

STLD Steel Dynamics (0.0)

VRNT Verint Systems (-0.0)

ADI Analog Devices (-0.01)

AMC AMC Entertainment (-0.01)

RXRX Recursion Pharmaceuticals (0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against KMX

MUX McEwen Mining (-0.55)

DVN Devon Energy (-0.55)

BHP BHP Group Limited (-0.56)

GROY Gold Royalty (-0.61)

RIO Rio Tinto (-0.65)

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