KOS Forecast




Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish<->Bullish




Bullish Case: KOS might benefit from strategic partnerships and rising oil prices, with recent investments indicating potential growth. The rebound from current lows could be significant as demand increases globally, leading to a favorable earnings season ahead.




Bearish Case: Concerns over geopolitical risks and high debt levels could strain KOS's financials, particularly if oil prices decline. If Q4 earnings disappoint, a sharp sell-off may ensue, jeopardizing current positions.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Positive Q4 earnings surprise (30% chance)
  • Continued oil price volatility (25% chance)
  • Geopolitical disruptions impacting operations (20% chance)
  • Static performance leading to mean reversion (25% chance)




Trading Oracle: Consider initiating a bullish debit spread using KOS 01/17/2025 3.00C and 4.00C. This strategy leverages KOS's high implied volatility and potential price recovery, targeting a timeframe up to earnings announcements. High reward-to-risk ratio with reduced downside risk.



December 21, 2024


Kosmos Energy Forecast

KOS        Kosmos Energy











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EDIT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EDIT  Editas Medicine (0.88)


SDS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SDS  ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (0.88)


WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (0.88)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to KOS



ZTS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZTS  Zoetis (0.01)


VDE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VDE  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Energy (-0.01)


DDOG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DDOG  Datadog (-0.01)


IOVA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IOVA  Iovance Biotherapeutics (0.01)


HCC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HCC  Warrior Met Coal (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against KOS



KKR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KKR  KKR (-0.89)


FTAI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FTAI  Fortress Transportation and Infrastructure Investors (-0.89)


COHR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COHR  Coherent (-0.9)


GWRE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GWRE  Guidewire Software (-0.9)


ISRG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ISRG  Intuitive Surgical (-0.91)









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