Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: With MGK trading at $340.35 and a 55% bullish risk, positive earnings reports could drive prices above $350. Expected institutional demand and tech sector strength underpin this bullish sentiment.

Bearish Case: Given high implied volatility at 44.9% for near-term puts, potential economic headwinds could trigger a decline. Current uncertainty in market factors might pull MGK below $320, posing risks.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 50% chance MGK rises to $355+ on strong earnings;

2. 35% chance remaining within $330-$340 range;

3. 10% chance dropping to $300 due to economic downturn;

4. 5% chance a breakout above $360.

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish approach with a vertical call spread: Buy 12/20/2024 $350 calls and sell $360 calls. This strategy exploits high implied volatility while keeping risk manageable, aiming for a potential upside if MGK rallies. Execute within a 1-2 month horizon.

November 14, 2024