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MUSA Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: MUSA shows resilience with strategic positioning and stable fuel demand despite EV trends. Historical returns are favorable and market implied volatility indicates controlled uncertainty.

Bearish Case: Regulatory challenges, increased EV competition, and high implied volatility could pressure MUSA. The flat term structure and high put volume suggest potential downside risk.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Stable post-regulatory environment leads to stock stability (50%);

2. Regulatory/legal setbacks cause 10% drop (30%);

3. EV adoption pressures sales (20%).

May 11, 2025

Murphy USA Forecast

MUSA Murphy USA

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Assets that tend to move strongly with MUSA

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IRM Iron Mountain (0.62)

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DXC DXC Technology (0.6)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MUSA

AB AllianceBernstein (-0.0)

LNG Cheniere Energy (-0.0)

ARR ARMOUR Residential REIT (0.0)

RL Ralph Lauren (-0.01)

CEG Constellation Energy (-0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MUSA

FEZ SPDR EURO Stoxx 50 (-0.59)

ETR Entergy (-0.6)

CRSR Corsair Gaming (-0.61)

NTR Nutrien (-0.68)

ACMR ACM Research (-0.76)

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