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NWS Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: NWS's return surface suggests significant upside over 1-2 year hold periods, bolstered by rising digital news consumption and ad revenues, especially post-election.

Bearish Case: NWS's high implied volatility and mean-reverting price action indicate risk of downturn from misinformation and intensifying competition from alternative media.

Potential Outcomes: Potential deepfake incidents or legislative changes have a 40% chance to impact credibility or enhance bargaining; geopolitical tensions continue to drive news demand (60%).

Trading Oracle: Utilize a long vol strategy with debit spreads: buy NWS Feb 30C and sell 35C. Implied volatility is high, offering favorable premiums. Holding period: 60 days, capturing post-election ad growth and minimizing downside risks.

January 16, 2025

News Forecast

NWS News

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with NWS

GLW Corning (0.89)

VOO Vanguard S&P 500 (0.89)

JPM JPMorgan Chase (0.89)

SSO ProShares Ultra S&P500 (0.88)

VGT Vanguard Information Technology (0.88)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to NWS

EIX Edison International (0.0)

YELP Yelp (0.01)

PTLO Portillos (-0.01)

CWH Camping World (0.01)

DOX Amdocs (-0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against NWS

GES Guess (-0.84)

EL Estee Lauder Cos. (-0.84)

BGS B&G Foods (-0.87)

CRI Carters (-0.87)

SPXS Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.88)

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Market Forecasts

Bullish / Bearish

Digital Assets / Most Accurate

Trading Strategies

Long Volatility

Short Volatility

Balanced News

Balanced News / Sources

Tech / Memes / Politics

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