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ONTO Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: ONTO's mean-reverting price action and solid growth in the AI sector suggest continued upward momentum, bolstered by new strategic partnerships and strong demand for semiconductor technology.



Bearish Case: High implied volatility, insider selling, and external macroeconomic uncertainties propose risk of downward correction, stressing market skepticism and potential valuation reassessment.



Potential Outcomes: Positive earnings surprise boosts stock (45%). Continued insider selling pressures price (30%). AI sector growth enhances revenue (25%). Economic downturn risks lower demand (15%).



Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread strategy by buying $185 calls and selling $205 calls for June 2025. Leverage backwardation in implied volatility to capture medium-term upside from mean-reversion signals, optimizing risk-reward with a favorable volatility edge.


January 28, 2025


Onto Innovation Forecast

ONTO        Onto Innovation

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ONTO


XYL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XYL  Xylem (0.75)


ING Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ING  ING Groep (0.72)


FEZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FEZ  SPDR EURO Stoxx 50 (0.68)


ST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ST  Sensata (0.67)


BLBD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BLBD  Blue Bird (0.65)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ONTO


GLD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GLD  SPDR Gold Shares (-0.0)


BSX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BSX  Boston Scientific (0.0)


SUPV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SUPV  Grupo Supervielle S.A. (0.0)


RRR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RRR  Red Rock Resorts (0.0)


NKE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NKE  Nike (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ONTO


ACN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACN  Accenture (-0.53)


GTLB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GTLB  Gitlab (-0.55)


ODFL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ODFL  Old Dominion Freight Line (-0.6)


PAYC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PAYC  Paycom Software (-0.67)


VTRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VTRS  Viatris (-0.74)







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