Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: OPRA's recent partnership successes and increasing user engagement signal a robust growth potential. The recent rise in implied volatility suggests that market players expect significant price movements, aligning with potential positive earnings reports.

Bearish Case: Regulatory pressures and competition from more established browsers pose significant risks to OPRA’s market share. Elevated implied volatility indicates uncertainty among traders, which may lead to negative price adjustments in the near term.

Potential Outcomes:

• Stable EPS growth leading to a 60% price increase (40% chance).
• Increased competition results in a 15% price decline (30% chance).
• Regulatory impacts lead to stagnant growth (25% chance).
• Market-wide downturn causing a 30% price drop (5% chance).

Trading Oracle: Adopt a bullish debit spread by buying OPRA $20 calls and selling $22.50 calls, expiring in March 2025. Given the current implied volatility and price action, this strategy captures potential upside with limited risk. Focus on entering the market on minor dips to maximize gains in a favorable volatility environment.

December 15, 2024