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PDD Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: PDD's strong historical growth aligns with the success of Temu, bolstered by solid earnings forecasts and increased consumer demand. Expected catalysts from upcoming stimulus measures in China could further uplift the stock, making it an attractive investment.



Bearish Case: High competition and ongoing merchant disputes may erode PDD's market position, creating uncertainty in revenue projections. The recent dip in stock value reflects growing market skepticism, possibly leading to increased volatility and downside risk.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Stable growth driven by Temu’s performance (60% chance);

2. Increased competition leading to market share loss (30% chance);

3. Continued internal challenges undermine confidence (20% chance);

4. Unexpected favorable regulatory changes boost sentiment (10% chance).



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October 27, 2024


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PDD        Pinduoduo

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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to PDD


BNL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BNL  Broadstone Net Lease (-0.0)


AAOI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AAOI  Applied Optoelectronics (-0.0)


TALO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TALO  Talos Energy (-0.0)


RCUS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RCUS  Arcus Biosciences (-0.0)


FDMT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FDMT  4D Molecular Therapeutics (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against PDD


SYK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SYK  Stryker (-0.51)


FAST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FAST  Fastenal (-0.51)


CAH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CAH  Cardinal Health (-0.52)


CLX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLX  Clorox (-0.52)


J Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   J  Jacobs Engineering Group (-0.54)







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