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Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Pinduoduo's expansion, especially via Temu, suggests potential growth, despite flat recent performance. The higher call volume and bullish risk indicate positive sentiment.



Bearish Case: Intense corporate culture and regulatory scrutiny could dampen Pinduoduo's growth. The flat volatility structure may signal stagnation, with downside risk from high competition.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Growth driven by Temu's success: 70% chance
  • Regulatory challenges impact operations: 40% chance
  • Price decline due to competition: 30% chance



Trading Oracle: Exploit high implied volatility and bullish sentiment by employing a Bullish Short Volatility strategy. Sell ATM puts and buy OOTM puts, with favorable odds (77%) and positive edge ($13), aiming for a strategy return of 11% (79% annualized).


May 03, 2025


Pinduoduo Forecast

PDD        Pinduoduo

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