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RDFN Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Redfin's price is positioned for a recovery as housing demand may rebound with improving mortgage rates, supported by innovative partnerships. Implied volatility suggests potential upward momentum.



Bearish Case: Persistent high mortgage rates and legal challenges could continue to suppress Redfin's performance. Elevated implied volatility indicates market uncertainty may lead to a further downward trend.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 40% chance: Housing market recovery boosts RDFN.
  • 50% chance: Continued market stagnation due to high rates.
  • 10% chance: Regulatory challenges impact operations significantly.



Trading Oracle: Engage in a bearish credit spread by selling the $9.00 call and buying the $11.50 call, targeting 70% odds of profit from flattening volatility. This aligns with current market dynamics favoring short volatility across a 30-day horizon.


December 20, 2024


Redfin Forecast

RDFN        Redfin

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with RDFN


COMM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COMM  CommScope (0.91)


EPR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EPR  EPR Properties (0.91)


KIM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KIM  Kimco Realty (0.87)


BIP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BIP  Brookfield Infrastructure (0.86)


XEL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XEL  Xcel Energy (0.85)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to RDFN


EVH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EVH  Evolent Health (-0.0)


ASPN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ASPN  Aspen Aerogels (-0.0)


CCJ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CCJ  Cameco (-0.0)


BLBD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BLBD  Blue Bird (0.01)


NET Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NET  Cloudflare (0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against RDFN


AAP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AAP  Advance Auto Parts (-0.76)


SMCI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SMCI  Super Micro Computer (-0.78)


OXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OXY  Occidental Petroleum (-0.8)


SIMO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SIMO  Silicon Motion Technology (-0.8)


VLO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VLO  Valero Energy (-0.8)







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