RDFN Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Strategic adaptations and tech-driven innovations may enhance Redfin's market position, potentially benefiting from any housing market stabilization or recovery.




Bearish Case: Persistently high mortgage rates and market volatility, coupled with legal risks, could continue to suppress Redfin's performance and investor confidence.




Potential Outcomes: 70% continued market stagnation with high interest rates impacting RDFN negatively. 20% chance strategic moves counteract bearish forces, stabilizing price. 10% regulatory changes or economic shifts favoring RDFN.




Trading Oracle: Execute a bearish short volatility strategy by selling $8.5 call and buying $9.5 call, expiring in 10 days. High implied volatility suggests favorable return, leveraging market's flat term structure to achieve high odds of profit. Target ~76% probability of success.



January 28, 2025


Redfin Forecast

RDFN        Redfin











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with RDFN



VNQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VNQ  Vanguard Real Estate Index (0.89)


ICE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ICE  Intercontinental Exchange (0.83)


SHW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHW  Sherwin-Williams (0.82)


CDNA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CDNA  Caredx (0.82)


UNH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UNH  Unitedhealth (0.81)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to RDFN



KOLD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KOLD  ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas (0.0)


CRC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRC  California Resources (-0.01)


ARKG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARKG  ARK Investment Management LLC - ARK Genomic Revolution (0.01)


CPS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CPS  Cooper-Standard (0.02)


INTU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INTU  Intuit (0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against RDFN



DBC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DBC  Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking (-0.76)


PTEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTEN  Patterson-UTI Energy (-0.76)


LABD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LABD  Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares (-0.78)


OXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OXY  Occidental Petroleum (-0.78)


AAP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AAP  Advance Auto Parts (-0.81)









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