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RDFN Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Redfin's price is positioned for a recovery as housing demand may rebound with improving mortgage rates, supported by innovative partnerships. Implied volatility suggests potential upward momentum.



Bearish Case: Persistent high mortgage rates and legal challenges could continue to suppress Redfin's performance. Elevated implied volatility indicates market uncertainty may lead to a further downward trend.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 40% chance: Housing market recovery boosts RDFN.
  • 50% chance: Continued market stagnation due to high rates.
  • 10% chance: Regulatory challenges impact operations significantly.



Trading Oracle: Engage in a bearish credit spread by selling the $9.00 call and buying the $11.50 call, targeting 70% odds of profit from flattening volatility. This aligns with current market dynamics favoring short volatility across a 30-day horizon.


December 20, 2024


Redfin Forecast

RDFN        Redfin

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with RDFN


EPR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EPR  EPR Properties (0.93)


COMM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COMM  CommScope (0.9)


VNQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VNQ  Vanguard Real Estate Index (0.86)


CLPT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLPT  ClearPoint Neuro (0.81)


EXR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EXR  Extra Space Storage (0.79)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to RDFN


DKS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DKS  Dicks Sporting Goods (-0.0)


OPCH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OPCH  Option Care Health Inc. - Registered Shares (0.0)


ON Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ON  ON Semiconductor (0.02)


KOLD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KOLD  ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas (0.02)


INTU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INTU  Intuit (-0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against RDFN


CLSK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLSK  Cleanspark (-0.7)


ASML Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ASML  New York Shares (-0.71)


PSX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PSX  Phillips 66 (-0.72)


WFRD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WFRD  Weatherford International plc - New (-0.73)


OXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OXY  Occidental Petroleum (-0.8)







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