RGLD Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: RGLD’s recent stability in gold prices and strategic acquisitions enhance its growth prospects. The mixed but robust sentiment, alongside consistent dividend payments, supports a long-term bullish outlook.




Bearish Case: Potential operational challenges, coupled with geopolitical risks and historically high P/E ratios, suggest downside risks. Persistent analyst skepticism and fluctuating commodity prices add to bearish sentiment.




Potential Outcomes:
  1. Revenue boost from successful operations: 60%.
  2. Production issues at key mines negatively impact stock: 30%.
  3. Neutral price action due to market stability: 10%.




Trading Oracle: Utilize a Bearish Short Volatility strategy to capitalize on stable market conditions and low implied volatility. This leverages recent small price fluctuations and mixed analyst sentiment to potentially enhance return profiles while managing risk strategically.



April 10, 2025


Royal Gold Forecast

RGLD        Royal Gold











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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to RGLD



LU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LU  Lufax Holding Ltd (-0.01)


BZH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BZH  Beazer Homes USA (-0.01)


SMG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SMG  Scotts Miracle-Gro (0.01)


CUBE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CUBE  CubeSmart (-0.02)


EIX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EIX  Edison International (-0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against RGLD



CLW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLW  Clearwater Paper (-0.79)


XRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XRX  Xerox (-0.79)


MUR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MUR  Murphy Oil (-0.79)


SHLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHLS  Shoals (-0.81)


NFE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NFE  New Fortress Energy (-0.82)









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