RLI Forecast


Bullish Case: RLI's robust historical growth and favorable long-term returns, coupled with resilient specialty insurance markets, suggest continued upside potential, especially given strategic business expansions and solid underwriting profitability.


Bearish Case: Recent flat price action and potential external risks, such as high volatility at lower strikes and macroeconomic factors, indicate RLI may face near-term headwinds, potentially disrupting its otherwise stable performance.


Potential Outcomes:

1) Continued stable growth: 60%,

2) Increased volatility due to macro events: 50%,

3) Short-term price decline: 30%,

4) Moderate increase in regulatory pressures: 40%.


Trading Oracle: Execute a bullish debit call spread targeting $140 to $150 strikes with a 3-6 month outlook. Consider the RLI 12/20/2024 145.00 C and 150.00 C options. Manage risk given recent flat action and potential for increased volatility. This gameplan offers high reward:risk and a high probability-of-profit.


July 21, 2024


RLI Forecast

RLI      RLI











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UVE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UVE  Universal Insurance (0.81)


MET Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MET  Metlife (0.8)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to RLI



FXE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FXE  Invesco CurrencyShares Euro (-0.0)


LITE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LITE  Lumentum (-0.0)


AES Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AES  AES (-0.0)


WMG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WMG  Warner Music (-0.0)


HSY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HSY  Hershey (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against RLI



DXD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DXD  ProShares UltraShort Dow30 (-0.74)


AUPH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AUPH  Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (-0.75)


NKLA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NKLA  Nikola (-0.75)


EXTR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EXTR  Extreme Networks (-0.76)


UVXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UVXY  ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.79)





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