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SOFI Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: SOFI is positioned for growth due to increasing member base and strong deposits, coupled with supportive market conditions. Positive earnings announcements could catalyze a price rally.



Bearish Case: Regulatory pressures and competition may hinder growth, coupled with high implied volatility suggesting investor uncertainty. A disappointing earnings report could lead to a significant price drop.



Potential Outcomes:

1. 40% chance of strong earnings growth leading to price increase.

2. 30% chance stagnation due to economic conditions.

3. 20% chance of a regulatory setback causing price decline.

4. 10% chance of unexpected partnership boosting stock.



Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread by buying SOFI 10/25/2024 $10 calls and selling $11 calls to capitalize on expected price increase. High implied volatility supports this strategy, aiming for 27% return (194% annualized) with 71% probability of profit.


October 21, 2024











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SOFI


AFRM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AFRM  Affirm (0.85)


CCOI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CCOI  Cogent Communications (0.81)


S Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   S  Sprint (0.81)


AAOI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AAOI  Applied Optoelectronics (0.81)


ILMN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ILMN  Illumina (0.8)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SOFI


CCJ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CCJ  Cameco (0.0)


ZIM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZIM  Zim Integrated Shipping Services (0.0)


AFL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AFL  Aflac (-0.0)


PGR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PGR  Progressive (0.0)


IMO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IMO  Imperial Oil (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SOFI


DECK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DECK  Deckers Outdoor (-0.63)


STAA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   STAA  Staar Surgical (-0.65)


TTEK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TTEK  Tetra Tech (-0.65)


CTAS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CTAS  Cintas (-0.65)


STNG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   STNG  Scorpio Tankers (-0.66)







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