Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Increased infrastructure spending coupled with improvements in STRL's EV projects could propel prices above $200, supported by a historical return trend favoring longer holding periods with high likelihood of positive returns.

Bearish Case: Economic headwinds and reductions in infrastructure budgets may drive prices below $170, as evidenced by elevated market skepticism reflected in high implied volatility for short-term positions.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued infrastructure investments lead to prices above $200 (60% chance).

2. Economic downturn dampens construction spending, pushing prices towards $170 (30% chance).

3. Stabilization around current levels due to market uncertainty (10% chance).

Trading Oracle: Engage a bullish call debit spread by buying the $190 call and selling the $200 call, benefiting from the current elevated volatility and projected price increase as infrastructure projects ramp up. Estimated 66% chance of success with a favorable risk-reward within the next 38 days.

November 14, 2024