Bullish Case: Strong dividends and stabilization in the lending market could bolster STWD, benefiting from a mean-reverting trend and strategic acquisitions.


Bearish Case: Ongoing economic strain and high leverage might erode STWD's book values, pressuring earnings and threatening dividend sustainability.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Mean reversion and yield sustainment (40%).

2. Earnings pressure from economic headwinds (35%).

3. Strategic growth through acquisitions (25%).


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March 27, 2024


Starwood Property Forecast

STWD        Starwood Property
Price Forecast: NEUTRAL    Price Action: MEAN REVERTING (?)






Correlated Stock Forecasts

Assets that tend to move strongly with STWD



BKU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [BKU]  BankUnited (0.84)


SWK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [SWK]  Stanley Black & Decker (0.82)


WBS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [WBS]  Webster Financial (0.8)


ARI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [ARI]  Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (0.79)


KRE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [KRE]  SPDR S&P Regional Banking (0.79)



Uncorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets with little price relationship to STWD



MRK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [MRK]  Merck (0.0)


ATAI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [ATAI]  ATAI Life Sciences (-0.0)


PEG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [PEG]  Public Service Enterprise (0.0)


ARLP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [ARLP]  Alliance Resource (0.0)


KR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [KR]  Kroger (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets that tend to move strongly against STWD



DXD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [DXD]  ProShares UltraShort Dow30 (-0.66)


PSQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [PSQ]  ProShares Short QQQ (-0.66)


SRTY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [SRTY]  ProShares UltraPro Short Russell2000 (-0.67)


TZA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [TZA]  Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (-0.67)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [SPXS]  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.67)





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