STWD Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: With high dividends and a mean-reverting trend [Helium], [Helium], STWD appeals to yield-seeking investors. Strategic acquisitions mitigate real estate volatility, presenting growth opportunities [defenseworld.net], [Yahoo].


Bearish Case: High leverage, economic headwinds, and refinancing risks compound financial instability [Helium], [Helium]. Elevated implied volatility suggests potential price declines and market skepticism [Helium].


Potential Outcomes:

1) Sustainable dividends (40%) [Helium]

2) Economic downturn impacts (35%) [Helium]

3) Acquisition-driven growth (25%) [Helium]. High leverage risks and refinancing issues likely to affect overall performance [Helium], [Helium].


Trading Oracle: Sell short-term, out-of-the-money puts (~30-45 days, strike $17-$18) leveraging high implied volatility and a mean-reverting trend, . This strategy balances risk and return, with an expected 80% profitability . Monitor for volatility shifts.


July 18, 2024


Starwood Property Forecast

STWD      Starwood Property











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with STWD



REM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   REM  iShares Mortgage Real Est (0.85)


BXP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BXP  Boston Properties (0.79)


ARI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARI  Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (0.78)


SWK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SWK  Stanley Black & Decker (0.75)


BEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BEN  Franklin Resources (0.75)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to STWD



ACRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACRS  Aclaris Therapeutics (0.0)


CHD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHD  Church & Dwight Co. (0.0)


SA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SA  Seabridge Gold (0.0)


URA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   URA  Global X Uranium (-0.0)


ALRM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ALRM  Alarm.com (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against STWD



YCS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   YCS  ProShares UltraShort Yen (-0.5)


SPXU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXU  ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500 (-0.51)


FTK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FTK  Flotek Industries (-0.53)


UUP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UUP  Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish (-0.57)


TBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBT  PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.64)





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