ALRM Forecast


Bullish Case: ALRM's continuous innovations and strong institutional backing indicate robust growth potential. The historical price return data suggests a potential upward trend, and its resilience amid market fluctuations adds confidence.


Bearish Case: Market competition and ongoing investigations pose significant risks. Historical return analysis shows frequent negative returns, and high implied volatility indicates market uncertainty about ALRM's near-term prospects.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued innovation boosts growth (40%)

2. Market competition hinders margins (30%)

3. Litigation hinders stock (20%)

4. Economic downturn affects consumer spending (10%). Based on historical trends and market data.


Trading Oracle: Engage in a short volatility strategy through credit spreads. Sell $70 calls and buy $75 calls expiring in ~31 days. High implied volatility and bullish outlook indicate optimal conditions for credit spreads, targeting high-probability profits within a short timeframe.


July 18, 2024


Alarm.com Forecast

ALRM      Alarm.com











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