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TOL Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Strong demand and strategic expansions in luxury housing bolster growth. Positive volatility trends support upward momentum.

Bearish Case: Insider selling and elevated implied volatility suggest market skepticism. Rising interest rates may dampen demand for luxury homes.

Potential Outcomes: Continued expansion: 60% chance due to market demand.
Potential correction: 30% linked to insider selling and economic factors.
Market volatility: 10% chance based on historical data.

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread given flat term structure. Buy TOL 03/21/2025 $130 calls, sell $140 calls. This tactic captures upside by exploiting favorable conditions. Suitable for a 3-month outlook, it balances risk and reward with high profit potential.

December 26, 2024

Toll Brothers Forecast

TOL Toll Brothers

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with TOL

IWD iShares Russell 1000 Value (0.95)

ITB BTC iShares U.S. Home Construction (0.95)

VTV Vanguard Value (0.93)

UNM Unum (0.92)

CINF Cincinnati Financial (0.91)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TOL

MAX MediaAlpha (-0.01)

OGN Organon (0.02)

HCC Warrior Met Coal (0.03)

IGM BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Expanded Tech Sector (-0.03)

SKYT SkyWater Technology (-0.03)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TOL

AMR Alta Mesa Resources (-0.82)

LABD Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares (-0.82)

APLS Apellis Pharmaceuticals (-0.83)

WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.86)

SPXS Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.86)

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