TOL Forecast


Bullish Case: Toll Brothers' expansion into luxury segments and robust sales catalyze growth. Low implied volatility suggests manageable risk for bullish positions.


Bearish Case: Significant insider selling and conservative margin outlook imply potential instability. Rising interest rates may suppress demand for luxury homes.


Potential Outcomes: TOL price grows (60%) due to urban luxury expansion. Price declines (30%) from internal risks. Marginal price changes (10%) from low volatility. Market events and earnings can pivot outcomes.


Trading Oracle: Trade bullish debit spreads. Buy $120 calls, sell $130 calls, targeting mid-July to September expiration. Leverage low implied volatility and backwardation for a high reward-risk ratio and positive edge.


July 12, 2024


Toll Brothers Forecast

TOL      Toll Brothers











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