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TOL Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Toll Brothers' strong luxury market positioning and higher short-term implied volatility may signal anticipation of positive earnings or market news, pointing towards potential stock appreciation.

Bearish Case: Implied volatility's backwardation suggests market uncertainty, combined with ongoing insider selling and rising interest rates, could pressure Toll Brothers' stock downwards.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued luxury growth and expansion (60%): Positive housing market and strong demand drive TOL higher.

2. Market correction due to economic pressures (25%): High rates impact luxury demand.

3. Short-term volatility spikes lead to price fluctuations (15%).

June 20, 2025

Toll Brothers Forecast

TOL Toll Brothers

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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UA Under Armour (0.9)

IRM Iron Mountain (0.89)

ZETA Zeta Global Holdings Corp (0.88)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TOL

ZM Zoom Video Communications (0.0)

PDD Pinduoduo (-0.0)

XLU Utilities Select Sector SPDR (-0.0)

RCL Royal Caribbean (-0.02)

AMZN Amazon.com (0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TOL

WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.65)

FNV Franco-Nevada (-0.66)

CNP Centerpoint Energy (-0.68)

PCRX Pacira BioSciences (-0.73)

OKTA Okta (-0.8)

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