UDN Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: UDN shows bullish potential with a mean-reverting trend and a recent price uptick, supported by a flat term structure indicating contained uncertainty.




Bearish Case: UDN faces bearish risks due to historical declines and external pressures affecting USD, though recent stability in implied volatility offers some balance.




Potential Outcomes:
  • 50% chance of stable prices due to mean reversion.
  • 30% probability of decline from historical trends.
  • 20% chance of short-term uptick from market volatility.




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May 11, 2025


Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Forecast

UDN        Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with UDN



EWW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EWW  iShares MSCI Mexico (0.83)


TMDX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMDX  Transmedics (0.65)


XP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XP  XP (0.64)


VOD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VOD  Vodafone (0.61)


F Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   F  Ford Motor (0.51)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to UDN



NIO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NIO  NIO (0.0)


EIX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EIX  Edison International (0.01)


CMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CMC  Commercial Metals (0.01)


CMCSA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CMCSA  Comcast (-0.01)


DELL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DELL  Dell (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against UDN



IVV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IVV  BTC iShares Core S&P 500 (-0.78)


MRVL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MRVL  Marvell Technology (-0.79)


VSCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VSCO  Victoria's Secret (-0.79)


KKR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KKR  KKR (-0.8)


RVLV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RVLV  Revolve (-0.83)









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