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UDN Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: UDN's recent gain of 7% over 60 days suggests a bullish trend, supported by low implied volatility and relative USD weakness.



Bearish Case: The flat recent price action and historical trends showing decline align with high implied volatility, suggesting downside risk remains significant.



Potential Outcomes: Expect a 60% chance of stable prices, 25% chance of decline due to historical trends, and 15% chance of a short-term uptick as mean reversion occurs.



Trading Oracle:
Based on UDN's low implied volatility and a neutral price forecast, consider the Bullish Short Volatility strategy. Selling ATM put options while buying OOTM put options leverages potential stability with minimal downside risk. Favorable implied odds suggest high profitability potential.


April 04, 2025


Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Forecast

UDN        Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish

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ADM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ADM  Archer Daniels Midland (0.79)


TAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TAN  Invesco Solar (0.76)


STM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   STM  New York Shares (0.76)


VSAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VSAT  Viasat (0.76)


AGEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AGEN  Agenus (0.75)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to UDN


DAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DAN  Dana (-0.02)


FE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FE  Firstenergy (-0.03)


UNH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UNH  Unitedhealth (-0.03)


SCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCO  ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (-0.03)


SAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SAN  Banco Santander (0.05)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against UDN


RKLB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RKLB  Rocket Lab USA (-0.8)


BYRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BYRN  Byrna (-0.81)


ZM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZM  Zoom Video Communications (-0.81)


NOW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NOW  ServiceNow (-0.81)


BBW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BBW  Build A Bear Workshop (-0.82)







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