Bullish Case: Government interest in UAPs and potential space exploration contracts may boost aerospace stocks. Increased media coverage can fuel retail investor interest, potentially raising UFO ETF prices.

Bearish Case: Mean reversion and high implied volatilities indicate significant market uncertainty. Potential contract failures or negative geopolitical events could lead to sharp declines in UFO's value.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Stable market: ±5% (55%),

2. Bullish surge due to contracts: +20% (25%),

3. Bearish fall from delays/losses: -30% (20%). Historical trends indicate mean-reversion dominance with moderate chance of contract-driven gains or losses.

Trading Oracle: Deploy a bullish debit spread: buy 06/20/2025 24.00 C and sell 26.00 C. Leverage shorter-term high implied volatility exposed on Helium surfaces to target potential contract-driven upside within 60 days. Favorable risk-reward given positive retail interest and media trends.

January 21, 2025