VGR Forecast


Bullish Case: Recent uptick and increased call volume suggest market confidence. Historical price return shows positive likelihood over 1-year hold. Short-term IMV forecast is higher than market, suggesting optimism.


Bearish Case: Competitive pressures and regulatory risks pose threats. Flat term structure and negative short-term returns observed. High IMV discrepancies indicate potential market confusion or instability.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Vector leads AI-tech market (40%).

2. Competitive pressure impacts growth (30%).

3. Stable but no significant growth (30%). Historically flat, suggesting mixed risks.


Trading Oracle: Initiate a long volatility debit spread for Dec 2024 using $12.50 calls and $15.00 calls. Buy the $12.50 call and sell the $15.00 call. Leveraging VGR's high short-term implied volatility, positive historical trends, and recent market optimism. High reward:risk, positive expectancy.


July 21, 2024


Vector Forecast

VGR      Vector











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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to VGR



SMTC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SMTC  Semtech (0.0)


HRL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HRL  Hormel Foods (-0.0)


QNST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   QNST  QuinStreet (0.0)


MITK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MITK  Mitek Systems (-0.0)


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Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against VGR



UCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UCO  ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (-0.36)


PBF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PBF  PBF Energy (-0.38)


DRV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DRV  Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shares (-0.41)


REK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   REK  ProShares Short Real Estate (-0.43)


TBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBT  PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.5)





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