VNQ Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: VNQ's bullish risk outweighs bearish by 27%, with rising call volumes deeply underpriced compared to puts, suggesting upside potential amid a mean-reverting regime.




Bearish Case: Persistent macro pressures and elevated put interest heighten downside risks for VNQ, with Helium indicating unfavorable volatility skew against potential gains.




Potential Outcomes:

1. 29% chance of flat performance due to mean reversion.

2. 35% chance of moderate decline due to economic pressures.

3. 36% chance of slight recovery driven by interest rate changes.




Trading Oracle: Leverage Helium's short vol edge with bullish credit spreads: sell $91.0 puts, buy $90.0 puts expiring in 14 days. Capture premium in a mean-reverting landscape with 71% win rate and 12% historical returns. Time volatility softens around upcoming rate meetings, offering profitable skew.exploiting systematic patterns effectively.



February 15, 2025


Vanguard Real Estate Index Forecast

VNQ        Vanguard Real Estate Index











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with VNQ



ICF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ICF  BTC iShares Cohen & Steers REIT (0.99)


ICE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ICE  Intercontinental Exchange (0.94)


SHW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHW  Sherwin-Williams (0.93)


RDFN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RDFN  Redfin (0.89)


AFL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AFL  Aflac (0.87)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to VNQ



KOLD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KOLD  ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas (-0.0)


UVXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UVXY  ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.0)


JOE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JOE  St. Joe (0.01)


NVST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NVST  Envista (-0.01)


CMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CMC  Commercial Metals (-0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against VNQ



OXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OXY  Occidental Petroleum (-0.78)


DBC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DBC  Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking (-0.79)


WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.8)


AAP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AAP  Advance Auto Parts (-0.83)


LABD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LABD  Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares (-0.87)









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