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VNQ Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: VNQ's implied volatility has decreased and is expected to stabilize, suggesting possible market optimism. Recent call volume increases indicate investor interest in upside potential, especially with economic stabilization prospects.



Bearish Case: Economic pressures persist with high implied volatilities for puts and previous downside risks remain significant. Rising interest rates could negatively impact REIT yields, exacerbating declines in property values and investor confidence.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Moderate recovery: 30%
2. Flat performance: 40%
3. Decline due to economic factors: 30%

The mean-reverting nature and flattening vol curve suggest nuanced market expectations.



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March 23, 2025


Vanguard Real Estate Index Forecast

VNQ        Vanguard Real Estate Index

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with VNQ


HIG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HIG  Hartford Financial Services (0.93)


SO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SO  Southern (0.9)


PTGX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTGX  Protagonist Therapeutics (0.9)


SLG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SLG  SL Green Realty (0.88)


HEI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HEI  Heico (0.88)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to VNQ


CPS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CPS  Cooper-Standard (-0.0)


ENVX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ENVX  Enovix (-0.0)


SEE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SEE  Sealed Air (-0.01)


HIMX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HIMX  Himax (0.02)


MCK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MCK  Mckesson (-0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against VNQ


RWM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RWM  ProShares Trust - ProShares Short Russell2000 (-0.77)


PTEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTEN  Patterson-UTI Energy (-0.78)


LABD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LABD  Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares (-0.8)


BBWI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BBWI  Bath & Body Works (-0.8)


AAP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AAP  Advance Auto Parts (-0.84)







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