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Bullish Case: With a notable bullish risk outlook (+35%) supported by a positive Helium implied volatility forecast, recent price stability, and potential interest rate cuts, the case for price appreciation towards $100 becomes compelling as demand for REITs may strengthen.



Bearish Case: Considering elevated implied volatility on puts and above-average trading volume in bearish options, a potential downturn remains likely, especially if macroeconomic pressures continue, risking a price drop below $90 due to uncertainty in rental income for REITs.



Potential Outcomes:

1) 30% chance of a sustained rally above $100 (positive rates),

2) 25% chance of flat performance (market inertia),

3) 29% chance of decline to $90 (economic slowdown),

4) 16% chance of severe downturn under $85 (market instability).



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November 17, 2024


Vanguard Real Estate Index Forecast

VNQ        Vanguard Real Estate Index

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with VNQ


XLRE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLRE  Real Estate Select Sector SPDR (0.99)


RWR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RWR  SPDR DJ Wilshire REIT (0.98)


PSA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PSA  Public Storage (0.95)


TRP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TRP  TC Energy (0.93)


BXP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BXP  Boston Properties (0.93)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to VNQ


PSTG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PSTG  Pure Storage (0.0)


EOG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EOG  EOG Resources (0.0)


BEAM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BEAM  Beam Therapeutics (-0.0)


OUST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OUST  Ouster (-0.01)


SLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SLS  SELLAS Life Sciences (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against VNQ


LABD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LABD  Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares (-0.76)


TMV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMV  Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (-0.78)


TBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBT  PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.78)


PBF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PBF  PBF Energy (-0.78)


BP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BP  BP (-0.79)







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