Bullish Case: With a notable bullish risk outlook (+35%) supported by a positive Helium implied volatility forecast, recent price stability, and potential interest rate cuts, the case for price appreciation towards $100 becomes compelling as demand for REITs may strengthen.

Bearish Case: Considering elevated implied volatility on puts and above-average trading volume in bearish options, a potential downturn remains likely, especially if macroeconomic pressures continue, risking a price drop below $90 due to uncertainty in rental income for REITs.

Potential Outcomes:

1) 30% chance of a sustained rally above $100 (positive rates),

2) 25% chance of flat performance (market inertia),

3) 29% chance of decline to $90 (economic slowdown),

4) 16% chance of severe downturn under $85 (market instability).

Trading Oracle: Adopt a bearish stance via a credit spread: sell 1 $94.00 call and buy 1 $97.00 call, aiming for a ~79% chance of profit with potential returns of ~18% due to heightened implied volatility. This positioning caters to the increase in market uncertainty while hedging effectively against potential downturns.

November 17, 2024