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VOO Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Institutional inflows and historical stability drive VOO upwards. Implied volatility backwardation suggests a potential bullish divergence, supported by positive sentiment and call option volume surge.



Bearish Case: Implied volatility backwardation and 11th percentile trading volume warn of potential price corrections. Geopolitical risks and economic data may enhance volatility, with option term structure indicating caution is warranted.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Price stabilization: 50%, likely due to historical resilience.
  • Market correction from catalysts: 25%, given geopolitical risks.
  • Moderate gains: 25%, driven by strong inflows.



Trading Oracle: Open a bullish debit spread. Buy $550 call and sell $555 call, expiring January 2025. Leverage backwardation in implied volatility and high call volumes for potential gain with controlled risk exposure. Anticipate price movement in line with inflows and historical trends.


December 28, 2024


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VOO        Vanguard S&P 500

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Assets that tend to move strongly with VOO


SSO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SSO  ProShares Ultra S&P500 (1.0)


TT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TT  Trane (0.97)


VGT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VGT  Vanguard Information Technology (0.97)


MFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MFC  Manulife Financial (0.97)


BSX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BSX  Boston Scientific (0.97)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to VOO


TMO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMO  Thermo Fisher Scientific (0.0)


FANG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FANG  Diamondback Energy (0.0)


PAYC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PAYC  Paycom Software (0.0)


UWMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UWMC  UWM Holdings Corporation (0.02)


OGN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OGN  Organon (-0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against VOO


IEP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IEP  Icahn (-0.87)


WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.89)


SHLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHLS  Shoals (-0.9)


APLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APLS  Apellis Pharmaceuticals (-0.9)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-1.0)







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