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AI WAFD Forecast

Bullish Case: A positive shift in Q3 earnings, bolstered by recent strategic loan divestments and inflation easing, could invigorate WAFD, leading to increased investor confidence.

Bearish Case: Continued regulatory pressures, especially regarding commercial real estate exposure, and the looming risk of a Moody's downgrade pose significant threats to WAFD's stability.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Moody's downgrade (50%);

2. Strong Q3 performance (30%);

3. Market volatility due to regulations (20%). Each outcome hinges on external economic factors and bank-specific risks.

Trading Oracle: Adopt a bullish strategy with debit spreads by buying WAFD calls at $35 and selling at $40, leveraging market optimism. This approach allows capturing upside with limited risk, as positive earnings could provide solid price action.

August 20, 2024

Washington Federal Forecast

WAFD Washington Federal

Price Forecast
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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with WAFD

DPST Direxion Daily Regional Banks Bull 3X Shares (0.97)

WAL Western Alliance Bancorp (0.89)

STT State Street (0.88)

IAT BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares U.S. Regional Banks (0.85)

VNO Vornado Realty (0.85)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to WAFD

ACAD Acadia Pharmaceuticals (0.0)

W Wayfair (-0.0)

HAS Hasbro (-0.0)

JACK Jack In The Box (-0.0)

RHI Robert Half International (0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against WAFD

RWM ProShares Trust - ProShares Short Russell2000 (-0.69)

TBT PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.73)

TMV Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (-0.74)

CELH Celsius (-0.76)

DRV Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shares (-0.82)

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