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WAFD Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: WAFD's strategic shift to small business banking promises growth, leveraging historical mean-reversion and undervaluation signals with low P/B ratios.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility and potential regulatory changes threaten stability, alongside the risk of Moody’s downgrades and exposure to commercial real estate.

Potential Outcomes: Moody’s downgrade (50%): Significant impact on investor confidence.
Strong earnings via small business focus (40%): Boost to stock price.
Regulatory pressures (10%): Negative impact on valuation.

April 25, 2025

Washington Federal Forecast

WAFD Washington Federal

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with WAFD

IRM Iron Mountain (0.85)

KIM Kimco Realty (0.84)

HIW Highwoods Properties (0.82)

GRBK Green Brick (0.82)

PHM PulteGroup (0.8)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to WAFD

AMPL Amplitude (0.0)

GRAB Grab Holdings Limited (-0.01)

PCOR Procore (0.01)

OXY Occidental Petroleum (0.01)

ASH Ashland (-0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against WAFD

TBT PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.57)

DAN Dana (-0.62)

DPZ Dominos Pizza (-0.65)

ETR Entergy (-0.71)

WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.74)

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