XLB Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: XLB's exposure to infrastructure and economic recovery positions it for growth. High call option volume signals bullish sentiment.




Bearish Case: Cyclic nature and recent mean-reversion in price indicate potential downside. Elevated put volumes reflect caution.




Potential Outcomes: 35% chance of mild upward trend due to recovery. 40% sideways as term structure flattens. 25% decline if economic pressures rise.




Trading Oracle: Opt for a bullish debit call spread: Buy XLB $90 Call, sell XLB $95 Call expiring in June 2025. Leverage stable term structure, aiming for moderate upward trend. High call volumes support this strategy with positive edge. Low risk, high reward potential.



January 30, 2025


Active Trust - Materials Select Sector SPDR Forecast

XLB        Active Trust - Materials Select Sector SPDR











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OTIS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OTIS  Otis Worldwide (0.76)


LEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEN  Lennar (0.74)


KBH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KBH  KB Home (0.73)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to XLB



ARVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARVN  Arvinas (-0.0)


LAC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LAC  Lithium Americas (-0.01)


PAYC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PAYC  Paycom Software (-0.01)


MGM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MGM  MGM Resorts International (-0.01)


CNI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNI  Canadian National Railway (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against XLB



WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.45)


ESTC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ESTC  Elastic (-0.51)


LABD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LABD  Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares (-0.51)


ASAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ASAN  Asana (-0.51)


URBN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   URBN  Urban Outfitters (-0.52)









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