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XLK Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: XLK exhibits robust long-term growth potential, bolstered by tech sector resilience and strong demand in AI, propelling price towards another high in the near future.



Bearish Case: Despite recent gains, historical comparisons to tech bubbles and high implied volatility surfaces hint at correction risks and potential downside vulnerability.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Continued tech growth leads to XLK peaking at new highs (70% chance).
  • High volatility prompts short-term stagnation (20% chance).
  • Market correction occurs if bearish sentiment rises (10% chance).



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June 14, 2025


Technology Select Sector SPDR Forecast

XLK        Technology Select Sector SPDR

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with XLK


QLD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   QLD  ProShares Ultra QQQ (0.97)


VGT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VGT  Vanguard Information Technology (0.97)


QQQM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   QQQM  Invesco Exchange-Traded Fund Trust II - Invesco NASDAQ 100 (0.91)


SSO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SSO  ProShares Ultra S&P500 (0.89)


TSM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TSM  Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (0.87)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to XLK


HL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HL  Hecla Mining (0.0)


ARR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARR  ARMOUR Residential REIT (0.0)


LEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEN  Lennar (-0.01)


NVO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NVO  Novo Nordisk (0.01)


PHG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PHG  Koninklijke Philips (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against XLK


SNY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SNY  Sanofi (-0.44)


O Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   O  Realty Income (-0.45)


ALC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ALC  Alcon (-0.49)


KO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KO  Coca-Cola (-0.51)


VIXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIXY  ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.64)







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