XP Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: XP's high call option volume and positive Helium sentiment suggest potential for recovery, driven by optimism in tech partnerships.




Bearish Case: High implied volatility and significant put volume highlight market skepticism. Continued economic pressures and dip potential increase risk of further decline.




Potential Outcomes:

1. Flat price due to market disinterest (40%).

2. Decline from adverse conditions (35%).

3. Recovery from positive market shifts (25%).




Trading Oracle: Use Bearish Long Volatility strategy due to steep implied volatility differences and negative price forecast. This strategy efficiently captures potential downturns.



April 19, 2025










Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with XP



ILF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ILF  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Latin America 40 (0.91)


PAGS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PAGS  PagSeguro Digital (0.85)


TMDX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMDX  Transmedics (0.83)


GSL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GSL  Global Ship Lease (0.82)


BCE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BCE  BCE (0.82)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to XP



LYFT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LYFT  Lyft (-0.01)


EXAS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EXAS  Exact Sciences (0.01)


IRM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IRM  Iron Mountain (-0.01)


NOA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NOA  North American Construction (-0.01)


FUN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FUN  Cedar Fair (-0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against XP



SOFI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SOFI  SoFi (-0.77)


IONQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IONQ  IonQ (-0.77)


YPF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   YPF  YPF (-0.81)


CALM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CALM  Cal-Maine Foods (-0.82)


RKLB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RKLB  Rocket Lab USA (-0.84)









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