Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Zillow's recent initiatives, particularly the 1% down payment program, could foster significant buyer interest, likely boosting sales and price appreciation. Market sentiment is leaning bullish, reflected in increased options activity.

Bearish Case: Ongoing high mortgage rates and potential adverse economic policies following Trump’s election could suppress housing demand, negatively impacting Zillow's growth despite recent program implementations.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 60% chance Zillow's new programs increase market engagement and revenue.

2. 30% chance high mortgage rates continue to challenge home sales.

3. 10% chance prolonged economic uncertainty leads to significant price drops.

Trading Oracle: Focus on a bullish long volatility strategy via a debit spread: buy 1 $75 call and sell 1 $80 call with a 1-month expiration. This leverages anticipated positive movements from Zillow’s initiatives while managing downside risk in a volatile market.

November 13, 2024