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ACGL Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: ACGL’s consistent historical growth and higher call volume suggest robust investor confidence, supported by stable implied volatility, indicating potential for price appreciation.

Bearish Case: Recent low trading volume and mean-reverting price action suggest limited growth catalysts. Potential exposure to geopolitical risks and regulatory changes could introduce downside risks.

Potential Outcomes: 50% chance of moderate growth driven by stable volatility and favorable sentiment.
30% chance of stagnation due to market saturation.
20% chance of decline due to geopolitical or regulatory impacts.

Trading Oracle: Implement a Bullish Long Volatility strategy by buying OOTM call options and selling fewer further OOTM call options. Capitalizing on stable growth trend and call volume increase. This strategy allows capturing the upside while managing risk through volatility spreads.

March 30, 2025

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ACGL Arch

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ACGL

IFF International Flavors & Fragrances (0.79)

FLNC Fluence Energy (0.75)

VOD Vodafone (0.72)

BAH Booz Allen Hamilton (0.71)

KDP Keurig Dr Pepper (0.71)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ACGL

MTN Vail Resorts (-0.0)

TWO Two Harbors Investment (0.0)

NRG NRG Energy (0.0)

RHI Robert Half International (0.0)

ATKR Atkore (-0.0)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ACGL

CQP Cheniere Energy (-0.51)

APG APi (-0.52)

ULCC Frontier (-0.53)

RMBS Rambus (-0.54)

ASAN Asana (-0.66)

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Short Volatility

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* Disclaimer: Nothing on this website constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Helium Trades is not responsible in any way for the accuracy of any model predictions or price data. Any mention of a particular security and related prediction data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Helium Trades is not responsible for any of your investment decisions, you should consult a financial expert before engaging in any transaction.