ALHC Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: ALHC shows strong call volume and mean reversion trends. Implied volatility suggests potential upward momentum, aligning with consistent call option interest and positive industry dynamics.




Bearish Case: High implied volatility in puts and macroeconomic pressures present risks. Volatility suggests potential market instability, with downside risk in the healthcare sector affecting ALHC's growth.




Potential Outcomes:
  1. Healthcare reforms enhance revenue growth (35%).
  2. Stock declines due to economic pressure (30%).
  3. Post-earnings market confidence rise (25%).
  4. Negative reactions to regulations (10%).




Trading Oracle:

Consider a Bullish Long Volatility strategy by buying $17.5 call options and selling $20 call options. The implied volatility surface indicates potential gains with increased call volume, providing a 192% potential return.



March 23, 2025


Alignment Healthcare Forecast

ALHC        Alignment Healthcare











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