APD Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Strong fundamentals in hydrogen energy and ESG create positive long-term prospects. Implied volatility suggests potential price stabilization soon.




Bearish Case: High valuation concerns and recent boardroom shifts could deter investor confidence, leading to potential downside in the short term.




Potential Outcomes:
  • 60%: Continued growth driven by hydrogen focus.
  • 30%: Slowdown due to valuation concerns.
  • 10%: Market volatility impacts prices.




Trading Oracle: Utilize a bullish debit spread targeting upside from hydrogen projects. Buy APD Jun 2025 $310 calls, sell $320 calls. Implied volatility structure supports long exposure for profit before June.



February 11, 2025


Air Products & Chemicals Forecast

APD        Air Products & Chemicals











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Assets that tend to move strongly with APD



KKR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KKR  KKR (0.94)


CHRW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHRW  C.H. Robinson Worldwide (0.93)


MTZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MTZ  Mastec (0.92)


BSX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BSX  Boston Scientific (0.92)


CRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRS  Carpenter Technology (0.92)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to APD



MFA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MFA  MFA Financial (-0.01)


FXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FXY  Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen (0.01)


CARS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CARS  Cars.com (0.01)


OLED Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OLED  Universal Display (-0.02)


SKYT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SKYT  SkyWater Technology (0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against APD



HDSN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HDSN  Hudson Technologies (-0.87)


EL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EL  Estee Lauder Cos. (-0.87)


LEA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEA  Lear (-0.88)


SHLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHLS  Shoals (-0.9)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.92)









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