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APD Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: APD shows resilience amid flat recent performance; bullish sentiment is supported by ongoing hydrogen investments aligning with ESG trends, potentially elevating future price momentum despite current stagnation.



Bearish Case: A high price-to-book ratio of 4.0 and recent price flattening indicate potential overvaluation risk. Market volatility remains a concern, preventing significant upside in the near term.



Potential Outcomes:

1. 60% - Continued growth driven by hydrogen focus;

2. 25% - Stagnation due to high valuation;

3. 15% - Downside from external economic factors impacting market conditions.



Trading Oracle: Consider initiating a bullish debit spread by buying January 2025 $330 calls and selling $340 calls, capitalizing on relatively low implied volatility and maintaining a favorable risk-reward. Adjust positions based on quarterly updates on hydrogen projects for optimal results.


November 19, 2024


Air Products & Chemicals Forecast

APD        Air Products & Chemicals

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with APD


TAC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TAC  Transalta (0.89)


CHRW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHRW  C.H. Robinson Worldwide (0.87)


SRE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRE  Sempra Energy (0.85)


CIM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CIM  Chimera Investment (0.84)


VNET Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VNET  VNET (0.81)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to APD


NXST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NXST  Nexstar Media (-0.0)


SCHD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCHD  Schwab US Dividend Equity (0.0)


CHD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHD  Church & Dwight Co. (0.0)


LOGI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LOGI  Logitech International (-0.01)


GBX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GBX  Greenbrier Cos. (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against APD


DK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DK  Delek US (-0.8)


IRTC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IRTC  iRhythm (-0.81)


DG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DG  Dollar General (-0.84)


PBF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PBF  PBF Energy (-0.85)


TM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TM  Toyota Motor (-0.88)







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