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CFB Forecast



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Positive market sentiment from the merger with First Busey could drive CFB's stock higher, as historical returns indicate significant upside potential (up to 100% over two years). Strong loan growth in key markets and synergies support this bullish case.



Bearish Case: Regulatory uncertainties and high implied volatility (indicated by spikes in short-term options) could lead to a downturn. The market's current cautious stance reflects concerns about integration risks and potential earnings dilution post-merger.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Price stabilization around $17 (40%).

2. Upside potential to $25 due to merger synergies (30%).

3. Price drop below $15 from regulatory concerns (30%). Implied volatility trends suggest increased caution with a noted bearish bias.



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October 16, 2024


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AX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AX  Axos Financial (0.92)


WAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WAL  Western Alliance Bancorp (0.92)


SPGI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPGI  S&P Global (0.9)


LC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LC  LendingClub (0.89)


EXR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EXR  Extra Space Storage (0.88)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CFB


MCHI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MCHI  BTC iShares MSCI China (0.0)


KHC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KHC  Kraft Heinz (-0.0)


RIVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RIVN  Rivian Automotive (-0.0)


F Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   F  Ford Motor (0.0)


EOG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EOG  EOG Resources (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CFB


FNGR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FNGR  FingerMotion (-0.8)


LABD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LABD  Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares (-0.8)


SDOW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SDOW  ProShares UltraPro Short Dow30 (-0.81)


DRV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DRV  Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shares (-0.86)


SRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRS  ProShares UltraShort Real Estate (-0.87)







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