CSV Forecast


Bullish Case: CSV's undervaluation, improved Q1 earnings, and insider buying signal potential upside. With Helium's volatility indicating minimal uncertainty, the bullish scenario is compelling.


Bearish Case: High debt-to-equity ratio, downgraded Q2 earnings forecasts, and high implied volatility suggest potential financial instability. Market's mixed sentiment could trigger further declines.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Earnings beat Q3 forecasts, leading to a stock rally (30%).

2. Failure to meet debt obligations, causing a sharp decline (25%).

3. Stagnation from mixed market reactions, resulting in minimal price changes (45%).


Trading Oracle: Deploy bull put credit spreads: Sell Aug 2024 25.00 P and buy Aug 2024 22.50 P. This Helium short volatility strategy has low risk, high reward, and is optimized for a low-volatility environment with a 45-day outlook. Positive edge, high reward:risk, and high probability of profit.


June 30, 2024


Carriage Services Forecast

CSV      Carriage Services











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CSV



MLI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MLI  Mueller Industries (0.89)


HAS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HAS  Hasbro (0.86)


NVCR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NVCR  NovoCure (0.85)


OGN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OGN  Organon (0.84)


GOOS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GOOS  Canada Goose Holdings Inc (Subord Vot Shs) (0.84)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CSV



EAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EAT  Brinker International (-0.0)


NUE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NUE  Nucor (0.0)


VLY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VLY  Valley National Bancorp (-0.0)


MFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MFC  Manulife Financial (0.0)


OVV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OVV  Ovintiv (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CSV



PBR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PBR  Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrobras (-0.62)


AKAM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AKAM  Akamai (-0.62)


CWCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CWCO  Consolidated Water (-0.63)


IONS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IONS  Ionis Pharmaceuticals (-0.67)


UVIX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UVIX  VS Trust - 2x Long VIX Futures (-0.88)





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