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DFS Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: DFS shows strong loan growth and digital expansion, supported by institutional interest and positive earnings potential, indicating robust upside potential.



Bearish Case: Regulatory scrutiny and high charge-off rates pose significant risks, potentially impacting DFS's profitability and leading to further declines.



Potential Outcomes:

1. DFS overcomes regulatory hurdles, maintaining confidence (40%).

2. Regulatory issues cause prolonged downtrend (45%).

3. Steady performance amid market volatility (15%).



Trading Oracle: Sell ATM put options and buy OOTM put options to capitalize on the flat term structure and bullish short volatility strategy. This approach leverages the slight bullish bias and existing higher implied volatility, aiming for a favorable risk-reward balance.


April 16, 2025


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DFS        Discover Financial Services

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with DFS


JPM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JPM  JPMorgan Chase (0.96)


COF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COF  Capital One Financial (0.96)


RKLB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RKLB  Rocket Lab USA (0.94)


AXP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AXP  American Express (0.93)


BFLY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BFLY  Butterfly Network (0.93)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to DFS


ENVX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ENVX  Enovix (-0.0)


CVX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CVX  Chevron (-0.01)


TDOC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TDOC  Teladoc Health (0.02)


SMG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SMG  Scotts Miracle-Gro (0.02)


ESTC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ESTC  Elastic (0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against DFS


STM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   STM  New York Shares (-0.82)


BCE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BCE  BCE (-0.82)


GES Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GES  Guess (-0.84)


XP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XP  XP (-0.84)


DVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DVN  Devon Energy (-0.84)







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