Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Improving park attendance and a successful launch of new content can significantly enhance DIS's profitability. The recent expansion in cruise operations signals strong growth prospects and rebound potential.

Bearish Case: Continued political scrutiny and competition in the streaming sector might suppress profits, coupled with inflationary pressures that could hinder spending at parks, impacting overall revenue expectations.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Increased park attendance near term (60% likelihood)


2. Growth in streaming subs (40% likelihood)


3. Ongoing political backlash impacts profits (35% likelihood)


4. Successful resolution of legal issues positively sways stock (25% likelihood).

Trading Oracle: Consider bullish debit spreads targeting DIS $116 calls by buying and selling nearby strikes (e.g., $114 and $116) with expirations in 30 days. The high implied volatility suggests potential for upward movement while managing risk with limited downside. Aim for robust returns aligned with anticipated bullish outcomes.

November 21, 2024