EMKR Forecast


Bullish Case: The ongoing restructuring, especially in defense sectors, could yield positive cash flow and reverse declining market trends, leveraging a price-to-book ratio of 0.9.


Bearish Case: Continued revenue declines due to shipment delays and management instability could lead to further price depreciation, with mean-reverting behavior signaling heightened risk.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Successful restructuring leads to positive cash flow (40%).

2. Revenue declines persist due to operational issues (60%).

3. Cash flow stabilizes by September 2024 (55%).

4. Mean reversion continues, price drops (70%).


Trading Oracle: Consider bearish credit spreads based on high implied volatility. Target shorting EMKR 09/20/2024 2.50 C and 5.00 C. High risk/reward with a time horizon up to September. Align with structural weaknesses to capture downside profit.


July 25, 2024


Emcore Forecast

EMKR      Emcore











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IEP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IEP  Icahn (0.58)


PII Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PII  Polaris (0.58)



Uncorrelated Assets

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GUSH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GUSH  Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. (0.02)


ESTA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ESTA  Establishment Labs (-0.07)


FL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FL  Foot Locker (-0.08)


SAVA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SAVA  Cassava Sciences (0.09)


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Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against EMKR



H Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   H  Hyatt Hotels (-0.73)


HWM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HWM  Howmet Aerospace (-0.74)


GEO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GEO  Geo Group (-0.76)


FTI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FTI  TechnipFMC (-0.78)


ACGL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACGL  Arch (-0.8)





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