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FOSL Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Increased luxury spending post-pandemic may drive FOSL's growth as consumer interest rises in vintage designs, coupled with strategic e-commerce expansion.



Bearish Case: Regulatory pressures against fossil fuels and competition from tech-integrated wearables threaten FOSL's market position, possibly leading to continued price declines.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Economic recovery boosts consumer spending: 50%
  • Heightened regulatory scrutiny reduces sales: 70%
  • Successful tech integration drives sales growth: 40%
  • Negative brand impact from fossil fuel associations: 60%



Trading Oracle: Consider a bull call spread using FOSL 12/20/2024 2.00 C options. Buy 1 and simultaneously sell 1 FOSL 01/17/2025 4.00 C. This leverages historical momentum and favorable delta positioning, optimizing risk reward while allowing for a near-term bullish outlook as market sentiment appears to capture upside potential.


December 18, 2024


Fossil Forecast

FOSL        Fossil

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TTWO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TTWO  Take-Two Interactive Software (0.6)



Uncorrelated Assets

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ACVA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACVA  ACV Auctions (-0.0)


ONTO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ONTO  Onto Innovation (-0.0)


WW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WW  WW International (0.0)


HBAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HBAN  Huntington Bancshares (-0.0)


PGR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PGR  Progressive (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FOSL


HOG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HOG  Harley-Davidson (-0.59)


ABSI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ABSI  Absci (-0.62)


BAX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BAX  Baxter International (-0.63)


AVTR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AVTR  Avantor (-0.64)


IOVA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IOVA  Iovance Biotherapeutics (-0.66)







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