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FOSL Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Fosil's resurgence in wearable tech, buoyed by recent price rebounds, hints at revitalized growth potential, sparking investor interest.

Bearish Case: Persisting skepticism and high implied volatility indicate potential continued decline, compounded by fading brand relevance and strategic struggles.

Potential Outcomes: 40% probability: Market stabilization with niche tech innovations.
50% probability: Continued decline from competitive pressures.
10% probability: Strategic rebounds due to successful pivots.

June 20, 2025

Fossil Forecast

FOSL Fossil

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with FOSL

AMZN Amazon.com (0.82)

QLD ProShares Ultra QQQ (0.8)

QQQM Invesco Exchange-Traded Fund Trust II - Invesco NASDAQ 100 (0.79)

VGT Vanguard Information Technology (0.78)

YELP Yelp (0.76)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FOSL

IRM Iron Mountain (0.0)

XRX Xerox (-0.0)

EXAS Exact Sciences (0.01)

BABA Alibaba (0.01)

PPL PPL (-0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FOSL

HCA HCA Healthcare (-0.58)

HII Huntington Ingalls Industries (-0.58)

VIXY ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.6)

ALC Alcon (-0.65)

O Realty Income (-0.68)

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