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FOSL Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Efforts in tech wearables and potential e-commerce growth offer avenues for recovery, driven by nostalgia and luxury appeal.



Bearish Case: Persistent decline in demand for traditional wearables, regulatory pressures, and brand association with fossils suggest further downturn.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Tech pivot success (25%) drives growth.
  • Continued brand decline (60%) impacts profits.
  • Stabilization with strategic moves (15%) occurs.



Trading Oracle: Execute bear put spreads with March 2025 expiration. Favor positions like FOSL 03/21/2025 2.00 P due to high implied volatility. Short-term bearish sentiment prevails with potential regulatory impacts suggesting further decline. This strategy offers a high reward-risk profile.


January 31, 2025


Fossil Forecast

FOSL        Fossil

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HIMS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HIMS  Hims & Hers Health (0.87)


WRBY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WRBY  Warby Parker (0.87)


VGT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VGT  Vanguard Information Technology (0.84)


XLK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLK  Technology Select Sector SPDR (0.83)


CRK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRK  Comstock Resources (0.82)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FOSL


VXX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VXX  iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.0)


VIR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIR  Vir Biotechnology (0.01)


ZD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZD  Ziff Davis (-0.01)


MAS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MAS  Masco (0.01)


VIXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIXY  ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FOSL


IQV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IQV  IQVIA (-0.78)


ABEV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ABEV  Ambev (-0.78)


XP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XP  XP (-0.79)


IOVA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IOVA  Iovance Biotherapeutics (-0.8)


HII Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HII  Huntington Ingalls Industries (-0.81)







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