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HII Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: HII’s mean reversion trend alongside bullish option activity and stable defense contracts could fuel growth. Declining implied volatility suggests reduced uncertainty, possibly leading to price appreciation.



Bearish Case: High valuations, potential contract delays, and macroeconomic pressures could dampen HII’s performance, causing further declines. Continued operational challenges and geopolitical risks also remain significant threats.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 40% chance of mean reversion return.
  • 30% probability of stagnation due to macro pressures.
  • 30% chance of price decline from contract delays.



Trading Oracle: Consider a debit call spread like the March 165/185 as lower implied volatility suggests underpricing. This strategy benefits from potential mean reversion while limiting downside risk with high reward-to-risk, targeting moderate short-term upside. Bullish bias.


January 22, 2025


Huntington Ingalls Industries Forecast

HII        Huntington Ingalls Industries

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Assets that tend to move strongly with HII


BRKR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BRKR  Bruker (0.82)


RRR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RRR  Red Rock Resorts (0.82)


LEA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEA  Lear (0.81)


IMNM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IMNM  Immunome (0.8)


ABEV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ABEV  Ambev (0.78)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to HII


MAS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MAS  Masco (0.0)


FCX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FCX  Freeport-McMoRan (0.01)


CRC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRC  California Resources (0.01)


MHK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MHK  Mohawk Industries (-0.02)


YELP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   YELP  Yelp (0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against HII


TXRH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TXRH  Texas Roadhouse (-0.81)


CRK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRK  Comstock Resources (-0.82)


WRBY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WRBY  Warby Parker (-0.82)


MAIN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MAIN  Main Street (-0.84)


HSBC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HSBC  HSBC (-0.86)







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