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ITB Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: The flat term structure and lower Helium implied volatility indicate stabilizing market conditions. This, combined with historical growth patterns and housing demand, presents an upside potential.

Bearish Case: High put volume and recent price decline signal market skepticism. Elevated Helium's implied volatility suggests ongoing uncertainty and potential downside risks in ITB's price.

Potential Outcomes: 60% chance ITB grows driven by housing demand recovery.
30% chance of price decline due to economic pressures.
10% stability from mean reversion.

Trading Oracle: Bullish Short Volatility Strategy: Given the flattening term structure and 71% odds of profit, selling ATM puts while buying more OOTM puts leverages on expected stability and receding volatility. Large put trading volumes confirm this play.

April 23, 2025

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ITB

PHM PulteGroup (0.99)

BZH Beazer Homes USA (0.94)

LEN Lennar (0.93)

OMC Omnicom Group (0.93)

SMG Scotts Miracle-Gro (0.91)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ITB

UBER Uber (-0.01)

SCO ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (-0.01)

SATS EchoStar (0.01)

UGA United States Commodity Funds (0.02)

MTZ Mastec (0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ITB

BB BlackBerry (-0.61)

DAN Dana (-0.61)

ETR Entergy (-0.62)

HIMX Himax (-0.63)

TBT PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.64)

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* Disclaimer: Nothing on this website constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Helium Trades is not responsible in any way for the accuracy of any model predictions or price data. Any mention of a particular security and related prediction data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Helium Trades is not responsible for any of your investment decisions, you should consult a financial expert before engaging in any transaction.