KAR Forecast


Bullish Case: KAR could see a positive turnaround driven by potential volatility underestimation and mean reversion, with bullish long-term returns likely based on historical trends.


Bearish Case: The high implied volatility and recent downward trends suggest potential downward pressure, indicating increased risk of further declines.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Price stability around $16 (probability: 40%).

2. Short-term decline to $15 (probability: 30%).

3. Potential rally to $18 driven by volatility (probability: 30%). Predictions derive from volatility surfaces, return trends, and current market behaviors.


Trading Oracle: Execute Helium long volatility debit spreads with short-to-mid-term calls, targeting a potential bullish move. Ideal spread: buy 17.50C, sell 20.00C expiring in August 2024. Positive edge with high volatility premium favors high reward:risk ratio.


June 23, 2024


KAR Auction Services Forecast

KAR      KAR Auction Services











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with KAR



REAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   REAL  Therealreal (0.9)


EBAY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EBAY  EBay (0.89)


SG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SG  Sweetgreen (0.88)


ATI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ATI  Allegheny (0.87)


SMTC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SMTC  Semtech (0.86)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to KAR



CF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CF  CF Industries (-0.0)


HDB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HDB  HDFC (0.0)


INSM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INSM  Insmed (0.0)


GRPN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GRPN  Groupon (0.0)


AMGN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMGN  AMGEN (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against KAR



GILD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GILD  Gilead Sciences (-0.71)


IGV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IGV  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector (-0.71)


WMT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WMT  Walmart (-0.73)


ZSL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZSL  ProShares UltraShort Silver (-0.75)


DAVA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DAVA  Endava plc (-0.78)





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