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MAR Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Marriott's ongoing global expansion and robust demand in luxury hospitality position it for significant revenue growth, potentially driving stock prices higher amid positive market sentiment.



Bearish Case: Insider trading concerns, fluctuating RevPAR, and unanticipated geopolitical risks may harm investor confidence and negatively impact Marriott's stock, leading to potential declines.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Successful Global Expansion: 60% chance; significant revenue growth forecasted.
  • Insider Trading Concerns: 25% chance; could lead to reduced market confidence.
  • Market Volatility: 15% chance; increased fluctuations in stock price expected.



Trading Oracle: Consider initiating a bullish bullish debit spread by purchasing MAR 290.00 calls and selling MAR 295.00 calls, capitalizing on rising call volume and moderate implied volatility. Leverage the slight upward trend in stock prices for a high reward-to-risk ratio over the next 30-45 days. Optimal duration aligns with high probability-of-profit.


December 15, 2024


Marriott International Forecast

MAR        Marriott International

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